The Next Pandemic – Are We Ready, and Is the Supply Chain Prepared?

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed profound vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Disruptions in the availability of critical medical supplies, shortages of essential goods, and widespread delays underscored the fragility of interconnected systems. As experts forecast the inevitability of another pandemic, the question looms: is the world better prepared this time? And perhaps more critically, is the supply chain ready to withstand the shocks that such an event would bring?

 

The Next Pandemic: When and How Likely?

Predicting the exact timing of the next pandemic is inherently speculative, but public health experts widely agree that it is not a matter of “if” but “when.” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), has warned that another pandemic could be imminent, with zoonotic diseases (those transmitted from animals to humans) being the most likely source. Diseases like avian flu, zoonotic coronaviruses, or even antimicrobial-resistant pathogens could spark the next global health emergency. Some scientists estimate that pandemics could occur every 20 to 40 years, with the increased risk stemming from factors such as climate change, deforestation, and the intensification of industrial farming.

 

Are We Ready?

On paper, significant improvements have been made in preparedness. Many countries have adopted new public health protocols, enhanced surveillance systems, and ramped up vaccine development capabilities. The international response infrastructure, like the WHO’s pandemic preparedness plans, has also improved.

However, a recent Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security report assessing global pandemic preparedness gave a sobering evaluation. Many nations remain underprepared, particularly in their ability to handle large-scale health emergencies. National lockdowns, border closures, and overwhelmed healthcare systems are still likely outcomes without significant advances in readiness.

Beyond government preparedness, the ability of private industries, especially those responsible for producing and distributing goods, plays a critical role in mitigating the impacts of a pandemic. This is where supply chains come under the microscope, and the current outlook raises concerns.

 

The Supply Chain: Lessons from COVID-19

During the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chains struggled to maintain operational continuity. Lockdowns disrupted production; restrictions limited transportation; and demand for essential goods like personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, and medicines far exceeded available supply. Just-in-time (JIT) inventory systems, designed to minimise costs by reducing storage, were revealed as dangerously fragile in the face of sudden surges in demand.

Despite the chaos, businesses scrambled to adapt. Some, like automakers, pivoted to manufacturing ventilators, while others diversified their supply networks to reduce reliance on a single source. Nonetheless, the crisis highlighted significant vulnerabilities in how supply chains operate.

Three years later, how much has changed?

 

Supply Chain Preparedness: Has Enough Been Done?

Many companies and governments have implemented reforms to make supply chains more resilient. For example, there has been a push toward reshoring (bringing production closer to home), building buffer inventories, and diversifying supplier bases. In theory, these efforts reduce reliance on distant, fragile networks. However, most of these changes remain insufficient to truly withstand the impact of another pandemic.

1. Resilience vs. Efficiency: The primary issue is that supply chains are still largely optimised for efficiency rather than resilience. While some businesses have started diversifying suppliers, many continue to rely heavily on just-in-time production to minimise cost. This leaves little room for flexibility when disruptions occur, especially in critical sectors like pharmaceuticals or electronics.
2. Geopolitical Instability: Global geopolitics have only added to supply chain complexity. Trade tensions between major powers, like the U.S. and China, are already creating disruptions. Additionally, the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East have further strained supply chains, as conflicts impact production and logistics in affected regions. In times of a pandemic, these tensions and conflicts could escalate still further, leading to severe bottlenecks in the flow of critical goods, particularly in regions where medical supplies or raw materials are concentrated.
3. Lack of Coordination: During COVID-19, coordination between governments and private sector supply chains struggled. Companies competed for scarce resources, leading to price hikes and further shortages. Unless nations create better collaboration and co-resilience frameworks, similar issues are likely to recur in the future.
4. Technological Shortcomings: Modern supply chain technologies have come a long way, but many are still not widely adopted. Artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain have the potential to enhance visibility, efficiency, and predictive capacity, but significant gaps remain. A survey by McKinsey in 2023 found that less than 40% of companies have digitised significant parts of their supply chains, meaning that real-time insights and predictive analytics – which are crucial during crises – are still limited.

 

How Can Supply Chains Become Pandemic-Ready?

To withstand the impact of the next pandemic, global supply chains will need a comprehensive overhaul. Key areas that must be addressed include:

1. Building Redundancy: Businesses need to shift from a lean, cost-minimising approach to a more resilient model that includes improved redundancy. This could mean creating multiple supply sources, stockpiling critical items, and improving logistical flexibility.
2. Collaboration Across Borders: Governments and private companies need to collaborate more effectively. Public-private partnerships could play a pivotal role in ensuring the timely delivery of essential goods. Nations must agree on protocols for sharing information, resources, and supplies during a crisis.
3. Digitisation and Real-Time Data: Supply chains must embrace digital transformation. AI-driven demand forecasting, blockchain for transparency, and real-time monitoring systems will be critical in detecting disruptions early and responding swiftly.
4. Sustainability and Co-Resilience: The next pandemic could very well coincide with other global crises, such as climate disasters. Sustainable and co-resilient supply chains, built on collaboration and shared responsibility among competitors, will be essential. Global supply chains should invest not just in robustness, but also in sustainability – ensuring their operations don’t exacerbate global challenges like environmental degradation.

 

A Fragile Future

The uncomfortable truth is that while some progress has been made, global supply chains are still far from ready to face the next pandemic. Short-term fixes have addressed some immediate vulnerabilities, but a deep structural overhaul is required to truly build resilient systems. The stakes are high – lives, economies, and even political stability depend on the ability of supply chains to function under duress.

As we look ahead, preparedness should not only focus on public health but also on the critical infrastructures that support modern life. Without robust, adaptable, and co-resilient supply chains, the world will once again find itself scrambling to respond when – not if – the next pandemic strikes.

 

If you’d like to discuss any of the points raised in this article, just reach out. We are always happy to chat. 

Further reading on this most important of topics:

It’s Time— Actionable Visibility for Resilient, Sustainable Supply Chains

What are the Key Attributes of Resilience?

Are You Securing Your Place In The Future?

Have a great day.